Week 1 Top 25

The college football season is just days away.  Preseason practices are wrapping up.  SEC teams have almost finished announcing suspensions.  That means it's time to release the initial top 25 for this season.  Remember, this is a ranking of how I view teams today, and anybody can move up or down.  So, if you aren't pleased with where your team is ranked, just be patient.  It will change.

Week 1
1. SEC	What does it take to be presason number one?  Well, being defending National Champs is a start.  Bringing back an NFL propect QB helps, as does bringing back nearly the entire offensive and defensive lines.  Star potential at RB?  Check.  Loads of experience in the back seven on defense?  Okay, not exactly, but there is loads of talent.  Oh, and how could I forget Nick Saban still sits atop the empire.  Elephants are king of the jungle until proven otherwise.
2. USC	The bowl ban is over, and the Trojans are loaded before the scholarship losses really kick in.  If Lane Kiffin's coaching ability is as big as his mouth, the Pac-12 and the rest of the country is going to need protection this year from USC.  With Heisman favorite Matt Barkley throwing to a long tall receiving corps that knows how to get up and go after balls and now an NFL caliber RB, the Trojans should be able to score at will from any position they choose.  If the defense stiffens up, this is a championship caliber team.
3. Oregon	Oregon's offense is built on speed, and for the past 2 years, that has meant the speed of LaMichael James and Deron Thomas.  James and Thomas are gone now but are only being replaced by more speed.  Kenjon Barner becomes the feature back with his own solid highlight reel, and Marcus Mariota brings a big play threat at quarterback.  Last year, as a freshman, De'Anthony Thomas was pretty much the touchdown button.  Look for him to dominate SportsCenter as a sophomore.
4. SEC	Somebody just couldn't keep his hands out of the honey jar.  America's favorite synthetic weed smoker is no longer welcome in Lester's club (but sex offender Zach Mettenberger is).  The Tigahz lose both their best defender and their best offense from last year in Mathieu.  There is still more than enough talent in Baton Rouge to make another run at a title, but the loss of the country's top playmaker puts them slightly behind the 8-ball.
5. Oklahoma	The Stache is back and may be a top Heisman candidate.  The problem?  All of his receivers are gone (Okay, one of them is back).  When Ryan Broyles went down last year, OU had no answer and limped to the finish line.  They've had an offseason to adjust and get a full stable of RBs back, but losses are mounting on the offensive line.  The defense gave up points sooner than later last year and looks to rebound with Mike Stoops returning from Arizona.  The talent is and has always been there for OU to make a title run.  Let's see what Big Game Bob does with it this year.
6. SEC	Do I really think the Gamecocks are this close to being a national title team?  No.  But do I think the next few teams teams are any closer?  No.  More than anything, this is a vote of confidence in Connor Shaw and a healthy Marcus Lattimore.  Stephen Garcia couldn't stop partying off the field last year, and coincidentally, the party on the field started after his dismissal.  Shaw showed that "it" factor down the stretch last year.  The defense took some big losses, including coordinator, Ellis Johnson.  Those losses also include freshman All-American JaDeveon Clowney, who is being replaced by sophomore normal All-American candidate JaDeveon Clowney.
7. West Virginia	Breaking News: Tavon Austin just scored another touchdown against Clemson.  The Mountaineers no longer have to fight the Big East stigma, and the WVU offense may be the best in the nation.  They have more offensive weapons than you can thank in an Oscar speech (or list here).  The key is defense.  If the defense is just good (not even great), WVU could be playing for the national title.  For the record, "good" would be a big step up from last year."
8. SEC	{Insert arrest joke here}.  Okay, now that that's out of the way, let's talk about football.  The dogs have an unhealthy amount of talent returning on defense as well as one of the most promising QBs in the country.  There are far more positives about this team than negatives.  The negatives, though, could be catastrophic.  Aaron Murray is possibly the best QB in the country when the pressure is off, but the dropoff is startling when it's on.  And the pressure is likely to be on more often this year, as the dogs will rely on an inexperienced o-line and a near worst case scenario at RB.  Murray is going into his 3rd year as a starter, though, so he is expected to continue to improve.  Once the secondary returns from suspension, the defense should be as good as anybody, making St. Mark's team a solid top ten team.
9. Florida State	E.J. Manuel is a budding star…again.  The Noles have possibly the most talented defense in the nation…again.  We've been down this road before, and this year is D-Day for Jimbo Fisher.  All the pieces are in place and are experienced.  Free Shoes U started 5 freshmen on the o-line against Notre Dame in whatever they call that bowl game now.  That means, they all come back with great potential.  But...that's all FSU has been for years now: potential.  This team has the potential to run the table and the potential to lose 3-4 games.
10. Wisconsin	Last year, Russell Wilson transferred to Madison from the ACC, boosting the Badgers to national title aspirations.  Wilson is gone, but now Danny O'Brien comes in from Maryland (also an ACC school for those who forgot).  Both O'Brien and Wilson were ACC freshman of the year.  O'Brien was an All-ACC candidate until the Randy Edsall disaster occurred, so (like Wilson) O'Brien took his diploma early and left for Wisconsin.  Oh, and the Badgers also return Heisman finalist Montee Ball and possibly the best backup RB in the country in James White.  Offense has become consistently strong under Brett Bielema, but the defense has been slipping.  If Wisconsin is to move up in the world, the defense has to catch up to the game.
11. Michigan	Was Brady Hoke's first year in Ann Arbor a fluke?  Maybe.  Denard Robinson, however, is not.  It doesn't matter if you put Robinson in Rich Rodriguez's spread or Al Borges's pro set.  He is one of the top 2-3 playmakers in college football.  The Wolverine defense has to continue its marked improvement from last season, especially with Alabama on the schedule to open the season.  We will find out quickly if Michigan is ready to rejoin the elite and if Denard Robinson will be making a serious run at the Heisman.
12. Michigan State	Losing Kirk Cousins at QB is a huge loss for Michigan State.  His leadership brought the Spartans to the verge of a B1G title each of the last two seasons.  What Michigan State does bring back is a stud RB in LeVeon Bell, a solid offensive line, and one of the best defenses in the country.  William Gohlston may be the best defensive lineman in all of college football.
13. Nebraska	At one point, I had Nebraska as high as 7th.  Then I remembered what a headcase Taylor Martinez is and how disappointing the Husker defense has been the last couple years.  That said, Nebraska does have a lot of talent coming back.  There's a reason the defense has been disappointing: they have talent and a highly touted defensive coach in Bo Pelini.  That leaves reason for optimism.  Taylor Martinez has also shown flashes of brilliance that has even brought him into Heisman discussions.  Maybe this is the year he grows up.  Nebraska could go way up or way down from here this season.
14. Oklahoma State	Now we find out if Mike Gundy has truly built a top program in Stillwater or if the last few years were just a flash in the pan.  It's probably safe to say the Cowboys will still score a lot of points even without Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, but a return to the top ten and even national title contention is unlikely.  More than likely, OSU will return to having to win shootouts and 7-8 win seasons.
15. SEC	The Hogs' journey back to the top of the college football world has run off the road.  In a motorcycle wreck of an offseason, Bobby Petrino didn't have as much success trying to sneak out of town in the middle of the night this time.  Now, the Hogs are left with John L. Smith running the show.  The same John L. Smith that preceeded Petrino at Louisville before tanking at Michigan State.  The good news is that Tyler Wilson returns along with a healthy Knile Davis.  There is enough talent in place to still have a good year, but nobody believes Smith is the long term answer.
16. Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University	Logan Thomas better reach the star potential Turkey fans have envisioned, because the cupboard is empty on offense.  Gone are the program's all-time leading receivers, David Wilson, and basically the entire offensive line.  That's the bad news.  The good news is that almost the entire defense returns, including playmakers like Bruce Taylor and Kyle Fuller.  While the defense may be good enough for another 10 win season and ACC title, that national championship trophy case will continue to sit empty.
17. TCU	TCU became a model for consistency in the Mountain West and never lost a game as a Big East member.  Now, they join the Big 12 to allow to get the conference back up to 10 teams.  The Horned Frogs are still talented and should be greatly improved on defense, but the question is if they are ready to hold up for a full season in a BCS conference.  If Casey Pachall can mature, they have a chance.
18. Texas	Mack Brown is still looking for a replacement for Colt McCoy, and it's looking like David Ashe is currently the frontruner over baby McCoy.  The Texas defense began to return to form last season and should get even better this year.  A return to the running game should ease the pressure on whoever takes over at QB, but until someone proves himself there, the Longhorns won't be all the way back.
19. Clemson	As noted above, West Virginia is still scoring on the Clemson defense.  The Tigers hired Brett Venables from Oklahoma to take over at DC.  Of course, the OU defense was nothing special last year either.  The key, of course, is the offense, which faltered down the stretch.  With a year of experience, Tahj Boyd should be ready to perform for the full season, and Andre Ellington may lead the conference in rushing.  Then there's that Sammy Watkins guy, who, when not failing drug tests, is the best receiver in the nation.
20. Stanford	Stanford has been one of the strongest rushing teams in the nation for the past several years, and Stepfan Taylor returns to lead that attack again.  The Dancing Trees have recruited well, allowing them to build a strong and deep if not flashy roster.  It is yet to be seen how much of an impact losing Andrew Luck will have.  It should be safe to say they won't be returning to the top five this year, and they could fall even further than this.
21. Collin Klein	Collin Klein picks up RG3's torch as the best one man show this year.
22. Notre Dame	This feels very wrong, but the truth is Notre Dame is returning a lot of talent that could finally bring them back into the national picture.  The Irish have playmakers at almost every position except QB.  Mantei T'eo is a future NFL star and leads what should be a very solid (if not better) defense.  Cierre Wood is a solid runningback and will be needed while they navigate the less than stellar QB situation.
23. Utah	Utah ended the year on a hot streak and bring back the potential #1 overall draft pick in DT Star Loutulelei.  How good is Loutulelei?  Just watch the 4th quarter of the Sun Bowl.  The offense will need to develop more consistency, and the return of QB Jordan Wynn from injury should help that.  Even with a mediocre offense, Utah has a chance in the mediocre Pac-12 South (except for USC).
24. Washington	Speaking of mediocre offense and strong defense, that is not the case with Washington (Exhibit A: 2011 Alamo Bowl).  Keith Price comes back in his second year as starter to lead the Huskies' high scoring offense.  With a number of players returning on defense, there is hope it will get better.  But only hope.  Regardless, UW has come a long way in 3 years under Steve Sarkisian.
25. Boise State	Kellen Moore leaves as the all time winningest college QB.  While that is obviously a huge loss, the offense should still be fine (maybe not as good, but fine), especially with D.J. Harper finally getting his chance to star at RB.  What is really alarming is that the Broncos only return one starter on defense.  One.  And that was a pretty good defense last year, just ask Aaron Murray.  Boise is not in anybody's darkhorse national title discussion this year, but as long as Chris Peterson is in town, Boise will stay at the top of the Mountain West.

Conference Predictions

The initial top 25 will be up in the next few days.  In the mean time, here is a shot at predicting how the BCS conference races will play out.  I can pretty much guarantee one pick on here will make me look like a genius and one will make me look like a soccer fan.

ACC

Atlantic:

1.       Florida State

2.       NC State

3.       Clemson

4.       Wake Forest

5.       Boston College

6.       Maryland

Coastal:

1.       Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University

2.       Georgia Tech

3.       North Carolina

4.       Virginia

5.       Miami

6.      Duke

Big 12

1.       West Virginia

2.       Oklahoma

3.       Texas

4.       TCU

5.       Kansas State

6.       Oklahoma State

7.       Iowa State

8.       Baylor

9.       Texas Tech

10.   Kansas

11.   Team to be named later

12.   Team to be named later

Big East

Let’s be honest, the Big East will just end up in an 8-way tie for third.

B1G

Leaders:

1.       Wisconsin

2.       Ohio State

3.       Purdue

4.       Illinois

5.       Penn State

6.       Indiana

Legends:

1.       Michigan State

2.       Michigan

3.       Nebraska

4.       Northwestern

5.       Iowa

6.       Minnesota

Pac-12

North:

1.       Oregon

2.       Stanford

3.       Washington

4.       Washington State

5.       Cal

6.       Oregon State

South:

1.       USC

2.       Utah

3.       Arizona

4.       Arizona State

5.       UCLA

6.       Colorado

S-E-C…S-E-C…S-E-C…S-E-C

West:

1.       SEC Bear Preservation Society

2.       SEC Corn Dog Stand

3.       SEC Harley Davidson Dealership

4.       SEC Fatigues Boutique

5.       SEC Free Cash Exchange

6.       SEC Cowbell Factory

7.       Harvard of the South

East:

1.       SEC DMV

2.       SEC Chicken Coup

3.       SEC Midwest Satellite Campus

4.       Go Gayta

5.       SEC Wine and Cheese Party

6.       SEC Highway Cleanup Crew

7.       John Calipari

...and we're back...

It’s almost that time of year again, which means we are back here at the QB Duck.  I say “we” as if I’m not the only person writing on here.  A lot has happened since we left off in January.  Missouri and Texas A&M have seen record setting 40 times in camp with a new influx of SEC Speed.  West Virginia and TCU bailed on the Big East to join the Big 12 (which still has 10 teams).  Michael Dyer has been kicked off of two different teams this offseason, which is just as many as Isaiah Crowell and Tyrann Mathieu have combined (he’s an overachiever).    

In a piece of bittersweet news, Bob Davie has left the broadcast booth to rejoin the coaching ranks at New Mexico.  The Lobos have won a total of three games in the past three years, and the sad state of their offensive line should give new meaning to the quarterback duck play. Speaking of sad states, the grease fire at Maryland is burning even higher now that their only hope, QB C.J. Brown, is out for the season.  Looks like crab cakes are now the only thing Maryland does. 

The big theme this year outside of failed drug tests and guns is the NCAA disciplinary committee.  UNC (academic integrity) and Ohio State (entrepreneurialism) will not be playing in bowl games this year, and, by the way, neither will Penn State (well, you know).  This makes them ineligible to receive votes in this poll this season.  Speaking of which, USC is back after a two year bowl ban just in time for them to be loaded in Matt Barkley’s senior season.  Just for the record, I would not vote USC number one.  As per my rules, teams who finished last season with a losing record are also ineligible for the preseason poll, so Colorado and Duke will have to wait at least a week to enter the top 25.

There are a number of big names joining Bob Davie in making a return to the college head coaching ranks.  Terry Bowden (Akron), Urban Meyer (*), and Mike Leach (Washington State) come back from their broadcasting gigs.  Charlie Weis gets a promotion (or demotion) to head coach at Kansas after spending a year calling plays in Gainesville.  Jayhawk fans hope Weis can return to the glory days of Mark Mangino, because Turner Gill clearly wasn’t fat enough to win in Lawrence.

As a refresher of my philosophy on rankings, teams will not be ranked based on a projection of where they will finish.  They will be ranked based on how good I think they are at that point in time.  People in the media often rank teams highly in the preseason because “they could go undefeated with their easy schedule.”  This logic makes no sense for a couple reasons: (1) Perceived future schedule strength has nothing to do with how good a team is; and (2) if an easier schedule is seen as a reason to knock a team at the end of the season (see Oklahoma State vs. Alabama 2011) why would it be cause to rank a team higher at the beginning of the season?  Of course, we will soon have a playoff system to counter this effect, and that’s all I have to say about that.

Now that I have hit all the important topics- conference realignment, SEC Speed, Bob Davie, Maryland crab cakes, drug use, NCAA violations, Duke football, Bob Davie, America’s obesity problem, BCS controversy, and playoffs (!?!?)- I think we are ready to start the season. 

Oops, I almost forgot to mention Tim Tebow.