Thursday, September 1, 2011

Top 25 Week 1

Week 1  
1. Oklahoma This is a boring pick, and I'm not completely sold on OU.  Big Game Bob did finally win a BCS game last year, but let's not kid ourselves, it was against UCONN.  Clearly, OU has the most talent returning, but they do have a history of blowing games against weaker teams, and this group of players has not demonstrated a national championship mentality.  This, however, is not a prediction of what will happen down the road, so OU will sit at #1 for now.
2. SEC Julio Jones and Mark Ingram are gone, as is Greg McElroy (who, we should all be reminded again, only got an SEC scholarship because Tebow decided to bless the Gators with his presence).  Waiting in the wings, however, are two quarterbacks with first round potential, Trent Richardson, and a host of talented receivers.  The defense brings back everybody but Marcel Dareus, which means they should be even better.
3. Oregon Oregon lands here on the merit of returning virtually every important skill player.  Owner Phil Knight's team will have major holes to fill up front on both sides of the ball, which could spell trouble.  On top of that, top CB and Returner Cliff Harris is suspended for being stupid.  While that's probably not a legal term, he was going over 100MPH and told the cop he did not have any weed in his possession because he already smoked it all.  Oregon will still score scores of points, but chances of repeating last year's results are not likely.  
4. Boise State Chris Peterson is still the head coach.  Kellen Moore is still under center, and the field is still blue.  Boise has yet another opportunity to run the table with a marquee game to start the season.  Even though they are lacking SEC speed, they should take care of UGA and their stupid Nike uniforms (seriously, will Mark Richt ever learn?).  Now playing in the Mountain West, Boise has hope that an undefeated season with wins over UGA and TCU will carry more wait with the BCS.
5. Stanford There are two Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks in the state of California: Phillip Rivers and Andrew Luck.  You may have noticed that Andrew Luck does not play in the NFL but for Stanford.  As long as Luck is on campus, the Cardinal will have a chance to win any game they play.  There are not many stars surrounding Luck, but they are solid everywhere, and this team demonstrated a nasty attitude last year.
6. Florida State Christian Ponder was drafted 12th overall by the Vikings (yes, I'm still shocked too).  The good thing for Free Shoes U is that they are replacing a 3rd-4th round talent with an actual 1st round talent in E.J. Manuel.  The question about Manuel is if he has the stuff between his ears to succeed on the highest level.  We should have a good read on that when Landry Jones brings the stache to town in a couple weeks.  If the light bulb comes on for Manuel, then this year could be a return to days gone by when Bobby Bowden was still just old.
7. SEC It seems that Fewer Miles has been wasting Jordan Jefferson's kicking talent by playing him at QB.  I would say that sitting Jefferson could turn into a net gain for the Tigers if they weren't starting Jarrett Lee in his place.  For those that don't remember, Lee through seven pick-sixes in 2008...SEVEN.  Tiger fans also had reason to choke on their corndogs a month ago when new OC Steve Kragthorpe suddenly stepped down for health reasons.  With little hope of improvement on offense, a win over Oregon doesn't seem likely, and neither does a win over Nick Saban.
8. Wisconsin Wisconsin has cornered the market on boring since Barry Alvarez showed up at the nation's biggest party school.  This year, however, they are expanding their offering with the addition of Russell Wilson: a real playmaker at QB.  If they can score all those points with "Insert name of forgettable QB here," just imagine what Brett Bielema's system can do with a player like Wilson.  There is no reason to believe we will see a drop off on either line, so put your Red Bull down, the Badgers could be interesting this year.
9. Oklahoma State By my estimation, Mike Gundy is 44 or 45 now, which should make him even more of a man than he was in 2007.  Fortunately for the T. Boones, Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon played like grown men last year and have come back for some more.  Unfortunately, their defense did not, and we're not sure if they've come back for more.  If the defense grows up, OSU could make a run at OU for both the Big 10 and national title.
10. Nebraska As we all know, Nebraska has sought a change of scenery and will now be playing in the Big 12.  Whether they are legends or leaders, I have no idea.  Bo Pelini's temper, however, has become legendary, and for Nebraska to move into national title contention, Taylor Martinez will have to become a leader for this team.    
11. Texas A&M Consider me someone who is not sold on the 13th SEC team.  Von Miller is an enormous loss for the defense, and Ryan Tannehill imploded in the Cotton Bowl.  Christine Michael is a potential Heisman candidate at RB, and plan A, B, & C need to involve getting him the ball.  A&M has a lot of potential, but I remain skeptical that last season was an anomaly.
12. TCU TCU could be poised for a huge drop off.  Gary Patterson has built a consistent winner and always fields a great defense, but he has not yet seen a talent exodus like this one.  Not only is Andy Dalton gone, but so is their top playmaker, Jeremy Kurley, along with a host of linemen on both sides of the ball.  Patterson has earned benefit of the doubt, but this could be an off year.
13. Virginia Polytechnic Institue & State University Poor little baby Frank finally had a team that could make a national title run last year.  Then they lost to Boise…then James Madison…then they had to watch the highlights from James Madison on ESPN…then, after running off 11 straight wins, Jim Harbaugh delivered them one final ass kicking before going to the 49ers.  Now, we are expected to believe Logan Thomas is the next Cam Newton and VPISU will not miss a beat.  I know, find that funny too.  That said, Beamer has built a consistent 10 win team, and it just wouldn't be fair to him if the Turkeys didn't start in the top 15.
14. SEC Arguably, the best RB and WR in the country reside in Columbia, SC. Unfortunately for the Cocks, so does the dumbest QB in the country.  That's not arguable.  You can win big if you have to overcome a physical deficiency at QB (see Wisconsin), but you cannot over come intelligence deficiencies at QB.  A load of talent returns on both sides of the ball, and Spurrier has put all the pressure on Stephen Garcia.  If, by some miracle, Garcia responds positively to this pressure, the Gamecocks can make a run at the SEC title.  I wouldn't hold my breath.
15. Missouri Nobody really pays much attention to Missouri except for Missouri fans (and Kansas fans) until all of a sudden, they've just beaten Oklahoma.  That being the case, it's easy to see that they lost Blaine Gabbert and forget about them again.  What you would be missing is that they return nearly everybody from a much improved defense and every meaningful skill player on offense.  Gary Pinkel has proven that he can plug talented QBs into his system and still win.  Mizzou has a chance this year to make some noise in the Big 10 before they leave for the SEC or Big 12 or whatever conference to which they will inevitably move.
16. SEC Ryan Mallett has gone to the NFL, and everybody seems to think that will hurt the drug dealers in Fayetteville moreso than it will the Razorbacks offense.  Tyler Wilson has certainly proven he can put points on the board in place of Mallett, but the Hogs' will have a very difficult time replacing RB Knile Davis, who is out for the year with an injury.  Without Davis, we will be returning to the Air Petrino offense which will score a lot of points but won't be as effective when it comes to winning games.  The 7:30PM ESPN2 games should be entertaining if nothing else.
17. Michigan State Michigan State had a breakout year in 2010.  They then had a breakdown to kick off 2011 in the Citrus Bowl.  With Mark D'Antonio on the sideline, Michigan State should remain a consistent winner, last year was probably as good as it gets.
18. West Virginia Coaches Gone Wild: Morgantown will be hitting the field this fall to much anticipation.  The drama that took place in Morgantown this off-season can only be rivaled by the Real Housewives of "Insert city name here."  Once the hangover passes, however, we are left with a talented football team and a coach who knows how to score points.  Dana Holgerson is now officially the head coach, and the talent is there for WVU to make a run at double digit wins again...couches beware.
19. SEC Before we start, just let me say, "Go Gayta."  Coach Urban Mayaz has left to spend time with his family at ESPN and Will Muschamp has stepped in.  Though he has no experience as a head coach, Muschamp has won everywhere he's been and will not put up with losing, especially to the alma mater he spurned to take this job.  With Pizza the Hutt returning to college to call plays, the Gayta offense should thrive with John Brantley under center.  If Muschamp learns on the job quickly, the Gayta won't be down for long.
20. Ohio State Since it looks like Ohio State has successfully hidden behind Jim Delaney and been spared the wrath of the NCAA, they will find a spot in the top 25.  Their troubles have been well documented, and with a full roster they would likely be a top 5 team.  There is enough talent on campus to at least weather the storm this year if the team does not revolt.  Having to quash an uprising of support for Jim Tressell over the summer, however, is not a good sign.
21. SEC After stepping in as a freshmen, this was supposed to be the breakout year for super-recruit Tyler Russell in Dan Mullen's offense.  The only problem is that last year was Chris Relf's breakout year, and Russell has now been relegated to the bench.  Mullen's team probably overacheived last year, especially when you consider the context of their bowl beat down of Michigan.  While the hype may be a little too much right now, get used to hearing cowbells this year.
22. SEC Gene Chizik should win GM of the year in college football for 2010.  His free agent signings of Cam Newton and Nick Fairley certainly proved to be good investments.  They have now gone on to make even more money in the NFL.  Four starting offensive linemen are also gone, which means Barrett Trotter better reserve his own person whirlpool for the season.  Guz Malzahn's offense will still put up points this year, but it will look more like 2009 when Chris Todd was playing QB.  Unfortunately for Chizik, so will the win total.
23. UCF Jeff Godfrey may be the best quarterback nobody has ever heard of.  Yes, that's cliché, but, seriously, have you ever heard of Jeff Godfrey?  Godfrey is a serious playmaker who can have a breakout year after a very solid freshman season.  What really makes UCF a top 25 team is there defense.  They closed out 2010 by shutting down June Jones's SMU offense as well as A.J. Green and everybody's All-American Aaron Murray in the Liberty Bowl.
24. Notre Dame  The 11th Commandment: If Notre Dame wins their crappy bowl game, they must be ranked in the pre-season.  Brian Kelly may be a world class jerk, but he is evidently a good football coach.  Kelly is taking a big risk by naming Dayne Crist as starting QB this season.  It was only when Tommy Rees took over following Crist's injury that the Irish went on a run last season.  Mantei Te'o may be the best LB in the country, leading what should be Notre Dame's best defense in at least a decade.
25. Arizona State Maybe it's the cool new uniforms.  Or maybe it's the 20 returning starters.  Arizona State took a step forward last season, and Dennis Erickson has a shot this year to take a leap forward.  Vontez Burfict is an animal at middle linebacker, and everybody should know his name by the start of October.

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